In recent years, China's methanol industry has ushered in a period of rapid expansion driven by the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream industrial chains. The industrial development logic is gradually transforming from scale expansion to quality improvement, and the industry pattern presents distinct characteristics of structural adjustment. With the continuous optimization of the layout of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, profound changes are taking place in the supply-demand relationship, demand structure and circulation pattern of the methanol market, which injects new momentum and challenges into the future development of the industry.

At present, the pace of new production capacity put into operation in the methanol industry itself is gradually slowing down, and the focus of industrial development has shifted to stock optimization and upstream-downstream coordination. In sharp contrast, the capacity expansion of various core downstream application fields continues to advance, becoming the core engine driving the growth of methanol market demand. Different from the previous development model where methanol enterprises mostly supported the construction of downstream digestion devices, most of the newly added downstream enterprises in recent years mainly choose to purchase methanol from outside. The concentrated commissioning of such enterprises has further released the demand potential of the methanol market, provided stronger and more sustainable support for the industry demand, and promoted the adjustment of the methanol supply-demand pattern towards a more balanced direction.

From the perspective of the downstream demand structure, the industry presents distinct characteristics of "differentiated growth and survival of the fittest". A number of core downstream fields maintain a steady production growth trend, becoming the main force driving the growth of methanol demand. Their sustainable development will further consolidate methanol's core position as a basic chemical raw material. At the same time, as a traditional downstream field of methanol, the formaldehyde industry, despite a slight increase in production capacity, has shown a downward trend in output due to multiple factors such as intensified internal industry competition and restricted terminal demand. Against the background of continuous compression of profit space, enterprises in the formaldehyde industry that do not have competitive advantages have gradually adjusted their production by reducing load or stopping production, accelerating industry reshuffling and expecting further improvement in market concentration.

It is worth noting that the release of production capacity in the downstream methanol industry will show phased characteristics. In the next period of time, the production capacity of various downstream sectors will be gradually put into operation, driving the steady growth of the overall scale of the methanol market. With the continuous release of production capacity, the radiation range of the methanol market will be further extended, the regional consumption structure will be continuously optimized, and the national supply-demand pattern will also usher in structural adjustment. The traditional circulation paths will be gradually optimized and upgraded, and the regional supply flow will be more in line with the local supply-demand gap to achieve flexible allocation. This will effectively improve the circulation efficiency of the national methanol market and promote the formation of a more balanced and efficient regional supply-demand ecosystem.

In the long run, driven by the dual factors of the "dual carbon" strategy and the energy revolution, the methanol industry is undergoing profound changes in its industrial identity, transforming from a single energy and chemical raw material to a key carbon carrier serving new energy and high-end manufacturing. Downstream demand will accelerate its shift from traditional bulk chemicals to high-value-added fine chemicals and green fuels, and the space for industrial chain extension will continue to expand. At the same time, the industry's cost center will fluctuate under the influence of the raw material market. The game between supply and demand will still be the core factor affecting market prices, and the price trend will fluctuate periodically with changes in downstream demand variables.

Insiders said that in the future, China's methanol industry will gradually enter a stage of high-quality development, and industrial chain integration, greenization and high-endization will become the core development directions. The continuous optimization of the demand structure and the improvement of circulation efficiency will drive the continuous enhancement of the overall competitiveness of the industry. For enterprises in the industry, it is necessary to closely grasp the changing trend of the supply-demand pattern, focus on industrial chain extension and product structure upgrading, so as to seize development opportunities in the structural adjustment of the industry and achieve sustainable development.